(A press release from NYSAC)
“Stagnant consumer prices, declining consumer confidence and continuing high unemployment numbers are restraining prospects of recovery and growth,” said Stephen J. Acquario,executive director of the New York State Association of Counties (NYSAC), which has been tracking a range of economic indicators in the Economy Watch since before the onset of the current recession.
The bankruptcy of Penn Traffic, parent company of the P&C Super Market chain, is leading the loss of jobs indicator demonstrated by WARN notices, which give employees 90 days notice of impending layoff or plant closing. Warn notices spiked in November to 4,948. Penn Traffic anticipates closing 54 super market locations in 20 upstate counties with a potential of 4,142 layoffs.
Private Sector jobs did increase 0.3% since last month, but still show a 3% decline from a year ago.
“As the state’s economy slowly rebounds, it remains a concern for county leader that jobs be associated with the recovery. A jobless recovery would hamstring consumer spending and stymie any foundation for growth,” said Acquario. “It remains critical that the state’s efforts must be focused on maintaining and creating jobs in our communities.”
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (ICEI), which serves as the NYS Department of Labor’s overall business barometer of the condition of New York’s economy, has declined slightly for the 3rd consecutive month. The Index, which takes into consideration private sector job growth, the unemployment rate, the average weekly work hours in manufacturing and levels of sales tax collection has declined for 13 straight months.
Consumer prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Inde for Urban Consumers, remained basically unchanged both for the month and the over the year level since October of 2008. Apparel prices were the only index to increase significantly for the month, increasing 1.2%. Lack of movement in consumer prices is an indicator of a stagnant economy.
Overall Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Siena Research Institute, continued to decline in November (-1.6) particularly in Upstate communities (58.5) where consumer confidence numbers are almost 7 points below the state’s overall consumer confidence level of 65.1. The index, which measures consumers’ willingness to spend, continues to show the reluctance of state consumers to spend money on goods and services.
The State’s housing market has given clear indications of economic stability and modest growth over the past 4 months. Housing Sales rose 7.7% in October and 5.5% from a year ago. Median sales prices have also risen from a year ago, with the median sales price of a single family home going up 2.4%, according to the New York State Association of Realtors.
Private Sector jobs increased 0.3% since last month, but show a 3% from a year ago.
The bankruptcy of Penn Traffic, parent company of the P&C Super Market chain, is leading the loss of jobs indicator demonstrated by WARN notices, which give employees 90 days notice of impending layoff or plant closing. Warn notices spiked in November to 4,948. Penn Traffic anticipates closing 54 super market locations in 20 upstate counties with a potential of 4,142 layoffs.
For more on the November Economy Watch, visit our website at www.nysac.org