The February 26th special election in the 48th Senate District is critically important. It’s so important that the state parties have spent approximately $2.6 MILLION on the race. The parties are spending big money because they know that a loss by Republican Will Barclay will likely change the face of New York politics for a generation. And except for a recent article from our own Prudence Izguhde (is that a German name? Austrian?), very few local media outlets are even covering the story.

Here’s why the race is so important:

1. The Republicans in the Senate hold a slim two vote majority.

2. If Democrat Darrel Aubertine wins the special election next week, the margin will be only one vote.

3. At that point, there will be incredible pressure on a Republican in a Democratic district to flip. Because only one flipper is needed for a Democratic majority, someone will probably flip fast (you don’t want someone to beat you to the punch, because if you flip at that point, you are irrelevant, you will be dead to your Republican base, and you can be guaranteed a primary from a “real” Democrat in the next election).

4. Once the Democrats gain control of the Senate, several sitting Republicans will probably retire (Many of the downstate republicans are getting on in years, and politics isn’t nearly as fun when you’re not in the majority anymore). Accordingly, the Democrats will quickly gain a safe 5-10 member lead in the Senate.

5. This puts the Senate safely in the hands of the Democrats, JUST IN TIME FOR THE 2010 REDISTRICTING. Suddenly, only Democrats will be drawing up the election districts. This will undoubtedly produce a whole slew of Assembly, Senate AND CONGRESSIONAL districts that are completely safe for Democrats. If you think Louise Slaughter’s congressional district looked funny, you haven’t seen anything yet!

With that as a backdrop, you need to realize that the most recent Zogby poll has Aubertine leading Barclay by two and a half percentage points.

All I can say is that if you have friends or family in the 48th Senate District, plead with them to vote for Barclay. And if you have some spare time in the next few days, you might want to take a drive out to the 48th Senate District and pitch in and help the effort to keep the Senate safely in Republican hands.